 Delegates at a conference in Dundee have heard how mathematics can determine the fate of a marriage.
Professor James Murray from the University of Washington believes he has formulated a model which can predict the chances of staying with a chosen partner. He claims data from a couple's conversations, converted into algebra, is 94% accurate in determining how long a couple will remain wed. Professor Murray, who creates a graph of their conversations, believes it could eventually be used to predict the likelihood of divorce. He explained that phrases used by a couple in conversation are given a numerical value with the range being from minus four to plus four. So, a reference to a partner "being stupid" would be scored as minus four, but a joke which results in laughter from a partner would be scored as plus two. He said: "For each conversation slot we get a number and over time we get a graph of how they are interacting." Prof Murray explained that the information for the graph is collated when couples, who are planning to get married, are brought into a lab and there conversation is assessed for 15 minutes. He added: "We use a scoring system on their reactions and represent their reactions with algebraic terms. "Against time evolution, we can work out if they are likely to stay together or if they are more likely to divorce. "Maths provides a language for interpreting the human interaction. It quantifies one person's effect on the other, and it is not difficult. "The maths we are using could be done by secondary school pupils with basic algebra. Once they are shown the basic model, they insert their data and make the simple calculation." (Agencies) | 在蘇格蘭鄧迪舉行的一次會(huì)議上，與會(huì)代表們得知數(shù)學(xué)家可以測(cè)定婚姻的結(jié)局。 來自華盛頓大學(xué)的詹姆斯·默里教授認(rèn)為他已經(jīng)計(jì)算出一個(gè)公式，可以預(yù)測(cè)一對(duì)伴侶生活在一起的可能性。 他聲稱，從一對(duì)夫妻的對(duì)話中獲取數(shù)據(jù)，然后將其轉(zhuǎn)化成代數(shù)形式，就能測(cè)定這對(duì)夫妻的婚姻可以維持多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)到94％。 默里教授根據(jù)他們的對(duì)話畫出一幅曲線圖，他相信這條曲線最終可以用來預(yù)測(cè)這對(duì)夫妻離婚的可能性。 他解釋說夫妻對(duì)話時(shí)使用的詞語都被賦予了一定的數(shù)值，范圍從負(fù)四到正四。 因而，如果夫妻中有一人提到對(duì)方“愚蠢”，得分就為負(fù)四，相反，說一個(gè)笑話讓對(duì)方發(fā)笑得分為正二。 他說：“我們從每一段談話得出一個(gè)數(shù)值，一段時(shí)間過后，我們就可以繪制一幅顯示夫妻之間交流情況的圖表?！?/p> 默里教授解釋說，根據(jù)打算結(jié)婚的兩個(gè)人在實(shí)驗(yàn)室里的15分鐘談話，他們獲取了繪制圖表的信息。 他補(bǔ)充說：“我們用一個(gè)記分系統(tǒng)來給他們的反應(yīng)打分，并用代數(shù)術(shù)語來表示他們的反應(yīng)。 “隨著時(shí)間的推移，我們就可以計(jì)算出他們可能會(huì)待在一起還是更可能會(huì)離婚。 “數(shù)學(xué)提供了一種語言來解釋人與人之間的相互作用，它將一個(gè)人對(duì)他人的影響量化，這并不困難。” “學(xué)過最基本的代數(shù)原理的中學(xué)生都可以完成我們現(xiàn)在所進(jìn)行的數(shù)學(xué)計(jì)算工作。只要他們知道了基本模式，然后把數(shù)據(jù)套入模式，進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)單的計(jì)算就可以了?！?/p> （中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)站譯） |
Updated: 2003-08-15 01:00
